educated guess

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educated guess (plural educated guesses)

  1. A well-informed guess or estimate based on experience or theoretical knowledge.
    His educated guess was correct to within 2%, but then, he's been doing this for 10 years and knows what range of values to expect.
    • 2005 August 6, Guy Browning, “How to … guess”, in The Guardian[1]:
      Everyone guesses: estimating is how people with a trade guess; educated guesses are what professional people do; hopeless stabs in the dark are what statisticians do.