tail event
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[edit]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f9/Epsilonschlauch_klein.svg/220px-Epsilonschlauch_klein.svg.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Confidence-interval.svg/220px-Confidence-interval.svg.png)
Etymology
[edit]Noun
[edit]tail event (plural tail events)
- (probability) an event associated with a given infinite sequence that is determined by any subsequence of the form (a "tail" of that sequence)
- a low-probability event
- 2012, Masahiro Kawai, Eswar S. Prasad, New Paradigms for Financial Regulation: Emerging Market Perspectives, Brookings Institution Press, →ISBN, page 186:
- Exactly two years later, it was shattered by the force of a tsunami equivalent to the impact of 250 jumbo jets flying at 1,000 kilometers an hour—the very apotheosis of a real tail event.
- 2013, Mark Spitznagel, The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World, John Wiley & Sons, →ISBN, page 243:
- ... When the MS index is high ex ante, subsequent large stock market losses and crashes are no longer tail events at all—rather they are perfectly expected events.
- 2012, Masahiro Kawai, Eswar S. Prasad, New Paradigms for Financial Regulation: Emerging Market Perspectives, Brookings Institution Press, →ISBN, page 185:
- Policy frameworks anticipating only “ordinary” shocks within the usual economic cycles may not be very effective in mitigating the impact of such tail events when they actually materialize.
- an event that initiates an activity
See also
[edit]- (tail of sequence): Kolmogorov's zero-one law