black swan fallacy

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black swan fallacy (plural black swan fallacies)

  1. The logical error of discounting the possibility of something in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience.
    • 2015, Robert V Kozinets, Netnography: Redefined, page 163:
      The black swan fallacy holds that if all you have ever observed in your field research are white swans, you might be tempted to conclude 'All swans are white'. However, a black swan was discovered in Australia. Therefore, all it takes is one black swan to falsify the general statement about the universality of white swans.

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