misforecast

English

Etymology

From mis- +‎ forecast.

Pronunciation

• IPA^(key): /mɪsˈfɔː(ɹ)kæst/, /mɪsˈfɔː(ɹ)kɑːst/

Verb

misforecast (third-person singular simple present misforecasts, present participle misforecasting, simple past and past participle misforecast or misforecasted)

1. To forecast incorrectly; to make an erroneous prediction.
   • 1999, Barbara Jaye Wilson, Capped Off, page 81:

     Maybe she ordered too many, or misforecast and picked wrong colors, or woke up to find that trend she hopped on changed overnight and she's stuck with an order that won't sell anywhere at any price.

   • 2008, Brad Lockerbie, Do Voters Look to the Future?: Economics and Elections, page 117:

     Are any elections misforecast? Yes, the elections of 1960 and 1968 are misforecast.

   • 2019, Amitbh Chandra, Benjamin Handel, Joshua Schwartzstein, “Behavioral economics and health-care markets”, in B. Doublas Bernheim, Stefano DellaVigna, David Laibson, editors, Handbook of Behavioral Economics, page 492:

     In the more general case, the agent may misforecast demand and consequently view the tradeoff between a higher co-pay and a lower premium as being more or less favorable than it actually is.

Noun

misforecast (plural misforecasts)

1. The act of misforecasting.
   • 1964, Monumenta Nipponica, page 300:

     He offered his plans for revision to the authorities, but the adoption of his ideas was unfortunately postponed because of his misforecast of the solar eclipse of June 1675 .

   • 1988, Joint CEC/CPUC Hearings on Excess Generating Capacity: (SB 1970), page 55:

     Energy overpayments result primarily from the misforecast of oil prices.

   • 1991, Kazuo Ueda, Japanese Monetary Policy During 1970-1990: Rules Or Discretion?, page 3:

     The numbers can be roughly interpreted as the degree of misforecast of the level of aggregate demand.

   • 2020, Muhammad Maaz Rehan, Mubashir Husain Rehmani, Blockchain-enabled Fog and Edge Computing:

     Average task completion time (in seconds) versus the probability of sample misforecast for different number of misforecasts (k) and ratio of human and robot operational capabilities (f human /f robot ).

2. The result of misforecasting; misprediction.
   • 1978, National Center for Productivity and Quality of Working Life, The Future of Productivity: Report of a National Conference, page 122:

     The misforecast of 7.25 million crudely equals the total population of North and South Carolina, or New York (1970 censu ), or Austria.

   • 1995, Energy Modeling, page 3:

     If you misforecast right now's load you really inject x plus or minus the amount of the misforecast.

   • 1998, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, page 58:

     We use the actual misforecast instead of the actual change in the spot rate because the speculator invests in deposits according to the forward premium.